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Roadmap

This file should describe future work, not already-shipped functionality.

For the full prioritized technical roadmap with implementation details, see ./technical_roadmap.md.

Current Focus

  • tighten and stabilize the public API surface ahead of wider release
  • improve docs so the maintained guides, architecture notes, and API spec stay aligned
  • expand verification around newer optional components such as benchmarking, transformers, and torch-backed models

Near-Term Priorities (Phase 1)

  • Quantile-based CRPS — replace Gaussian approximation with exact quantile CRPS
  • Remove dead scipy import in distribution.py:sample()
  • Unified metric API — single score() entry point for all metrics
  • .summary() on DistributionPrediction — one-call overview
  • Multivariate plot facets — fix silent first-target-only plotting

See ./technical_roadmap.md#phase-1--fix-whats-broken-v020 for details.

Mid-Term Priorities (Phase 2)

  • PIT histograms and continuous calibration curves
  • Isotonic recalibration wrapper (close the calibration loop)
  • Sequential conformal updates (ACI) for non-stationary data
  • Rolling-origin and sliding-window time series evaluation
  • Non-crossing quantile training

See ./technical_roadmap.md#phase-2--core-statistical-rigor-v030 for details.

Longer-Term Ideas (Phases 3–4)

Idea Phase Notes
Parametric distribution fitting 3 Normal, Student-t, LogNormal from quantiles
Log-score metric 3 Strictly proper scoring rule alongside CRPS
Energy score for multivariate 3 Proper multivariate scoring rule
Extended copula support (>2 targets) 3 Vine copulas or pairwise chaining
SHAP and leverage analysis in model API 3 Wire standalone modules into BaseUncertaintyModel
EnbPI for time series conformal 4 Bootstrap + sequential conformal
Conformal classification / prediction sets 4 APS prediction sets
Batch and streaming prediction API 4 Production serving support
Model comparison suite 4 Skill scores, Diebold-Mariano tests
Risk function integration 4 Wire risk_functions.py into ConformalRiskControl
Test coverage to 80%+ 4 From current 65% floor

Completed Work

Features that have already landed should stay in the changelog or archive, not in this roadmap. See ./changelog.md and ../archive/README.md for historical context.